Published October 15, 2026 in Market Update

The most balanced story in Primary market is steady sales with less supply

Here is the number that matters most right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2,729 homes sold across Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down just 0.3% from the same three months of 2025. Sales barely moved. At the same time, homes for sale fell 5.4%. Fewer choices, nearly the same number of buyers closing. That combination gives you something to plan around.

The National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. inventory reached 1.60 million homes in September 2026. Our market is moving the other way. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows inventory here fell 5.4% year over year. Less supply with nearly steady sales means homes that are priced well are still finding buyers.

Mortgage rates are a real factor right now

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. The 15-year rate sat at 6.73% the same week. Those numbers affect what buyers can afford, and they affect how long homes sit. Keep that in mind when you set or read a price.

Speed varies a lot by ZIP code

Not every ZIP moved at the same pace. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 86001 had 40.5% of homes go under contract within two weeks of listing. ZIP 85138 had only 10.8% do the same. One market, very different speeds depending on where you are.

Prices are a mixed picture, not a single headline

Some ZIPs saw prices rise. Others dipped a little. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 85251 posted the biggest gain, up 17.8% year over year to a median of $630,000. ZIP 85210 saw the biggest drop, down 16.4% to a median of $325,000. The whole market does not move as one.

Where supply is tightest and loosest

Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home on the market at today's pace. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 85224 had just 2.2 months of supply. ZIP 85016 had 7.1 months. A seller in 85224 faces very different conditions than one in 85016, even though both are in Primary market.

The national picture adds context

The National Association of Realtors reported 3.99 million existing-home sales in September 2026 across the U.S. National prices were up 1.3% year over year. Realtor.com reported active listings nationwide were up 6.7% from a year ago as of October 8, 2026. Our market's inventory fell 5.4% over the same stretch. That is a meaningful difference.

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. A lot can change block by block. If your street has seen something different, that is worth knowing before you make any decision.