Published October 22, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory fell even as new listings rose

Here is the one thing that changes what you should do right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,612 homes for sale across the primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 5.4% from a year before, even though new listings rose 1.9% in the same period. Supply is still getting absorbed. That means new competition is showing up for sellers, but not enough to flood the market.

Sellers listed more homes, yet the total on the market still fell. That tells you buyers are keeping pace with new supply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,389 new listings, up 1.9%, but 3,612 homes for sale, down 5.4%. New listings are not piling up.

Pending sales slipped here and nationally

The primary market saw pending sales fall 4.9% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That lines up with a wider slowdown. Realtor.com reported September pending home sales were down 11.3% nationally. Fewer buyers are signing contracts right now.

One reason is the cost of borrowing. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. Realtor.com also reported that mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025, rising nearly 40 basis points over four weeks. That slows buyer decisions.

What the ZIP code numbers show

The picture is not the same everywhere. Some ZIPs tightened sharply. Others loosened. Here is how months of supply compared across a sample of ZIPs in the three months ending August 31, 2026, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

ZIP 85224 in Chandler had just 2.2 months of supply, the tightest in the market, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 85016 in Phoenix had 7.1 months, the most. That is a wide spread inside one market. Your ZIP code can read very differently from the market total.

Speed: some ZIPs moved much faster than others

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how many homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. In ZIP 86001 in Flagstaff, that share was 40.5%, up 9.8 points from a year before. In ZIP 85138 in Maricopa, only 10.8% of homes moved that fast, down 2.5 points.

Prices: a mixed picture across the market

Not every ZIP held its price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed ZIP 85210 in Mesa with a median sale price of $325,000, down 16.4% from a year before. ZIP 85251 in Scottsdale posted a median of $630,000, up 17.8%. Prices dipped in some ZIPs and rose in others. The market total does not tell the whole story.

Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home prices increased 1.3% in September 2026. That is a modest gain. Our local ZIPs ranged from a 16.4% drop to a 17.8% rise in the same period, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Local results varied far more than the national average.

What sellers should know

More sellers are listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,389 new listings, up 1.9%. That is new competition for you. But inventory still fell 5.4%, so buyers are absorbing new supply. Sellers who price carefully are still getting close to list. Across the market, most ZIPs posted sale-to-list ratios between 96% and 98.7%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

What buyers should know

Choice improved a little. The National Association of Realtors reported inventory rose to 1.60 million homes nationally in September 2026. Locally, new listings rose 1.9%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is a small improvement, not a flood. Realtor.com put the national median days on market at 62 days as of October 22, 2026. Locally, ZIP 86004 in Flagstaff had a median of just 27 days, while ZIP 85251 in Scottsdale averaged 83 days.

One street can read very differently from its whole ZIP code. A home on a quiet cul-de-sac may move in days while another a block away sits for weeks. These numbers give you the market shape, not your home's exact position in it.